Tet sales forecasting serves as the foundation for businesses to determine which products to prioritize, the volume of inventory to prepare, and the sales budget to allocate. However, a bustling Tet market does not guarantee that every product will sell well. To achieve revenue targets, businesses must understand customer needs, identify the drivers for growth, and assess their capacity to convert those needs into actual orders.
Tet Sales Forecast: Market Growth, Yet Why Are Products Still Selling Slowly?
Tet is a peak season for many sectors, ranging from food and beverages to gifts and consumer goods. However, an increase in overall purchasing power does not guarantee that every product will be chosen by consumers.
For instance, while the demand for Tet gifts may rise, businesses purchasing gifts for employees often prioritize budget-friendliness, whereas gifts for business partners may require a specific presentation and brand prestige. In the food category, consumers might increase their volume of purchases, yet they remain highly selective regarding price, quality, and convenience.
Therefore, businesses must distinguish between general market opportunities and the specific opportunities available to their own products. Before scaling up inventory or increasing advertising budgets, it is essential to identify which customer segments have a specific need, how your product addresses that need, and why customers should choose your offering over those of your competitors.
If these questions cannot be answered, any growth targets may be based on nothing more than mere expectations.
Tet Sales Planning: Is Last Year’s Data Sufficient to Set Revenue Targets?
A common approach is to take the previous year’s Tet revenue and add a growth percentage. For instance, if a business generated 10 billion VND, it might set a target of 12 billion VND for the current year.
While the calculation itself is not incorrect, the business must be able to explain where the additional 2 billion VND will come from.
Before finalizing targets, three factors should be examined:
Previous year’s results: Did the revenue come from repeat customers, new customers, a single large order, or a special discount campaign?
Market changes: How have selling prices, competitors, and consumer purchasing behavior shifted compared to the previous year?
Current buying signals: Have customers confirmed orders, are they currently in negotiations, or are they merely inquiring for information?
In particular, distributors must distinguish between the volume of goods supplied to agents and the volume actually sold to end consumers. An increase in stock moving through the distribution channel does not necessarily mean a corresponding rise in final consumer demand.
Historical data is only truly useful when a business understands the underlying causes of past results and assesses whether those same conditions still exist.
Customer Needs During the Tet Holiday: What Do They Buy, and Why?
Knowing who your customers are is not enough. Businesses must also understand the purpose behind their purchases and the criteria that drive their choices.
When it comes to Tet gifts, those buying for business partners might prioritize presentation, brand reputation, and suitability. Those purchasing gifts for employees, on the other hand, may focus more on the budget per gift, the total quantity, and delivery timelines.
Businesses should clarify three key questions:
What need is the customer trying to fulfill? A product might be perfect for one customer segment but entirely unsuitable for another. Identifying the specific purpose behind a purchase helps businesses curate the right product mix and adopt an appropriate approach.
What factors drive their choice? Price, quality, presentation, brand, and convenience carry different levels of importance for different customer groups. Businesses must pinpoint the factors that truly influence purchasing decisions, rather than assuming that a low price or a high-quality product is always sufficient.
When and through which channels do customers make their purchases? The timing of a purchase influences inventory planning, distribution, and communication strategies. For instance, if corporate clients require significant time to approve samples and secure budgets, approaching them too late could mean missing out on an order.
Understanding customer needs not only enables more effective communication but also guides businesses in deciding which products to sell, to whom, and at what time.
Boosting Tet Revenue: How to Convert Market Demand into Orders?
Even after correctly identifying market demand, a business must still evaluate its actual sales capacity.
Suppose the goal is to sell 20,000 units. Instead of setting just a total figure, break down the projected volume by source—existing customers, new customers, and individual distribution channels.
If growth is expected from new customers, you must have a sound basis for estimating the number of reachable prospects and their potential conversion rate into actual orders. If relying on distributors or agents, assess the number of retail outlets, their sales capacity, and the timeline for getting products to market.
Simultaneously, the business must ensure it has sufficient inventory, personnel, budget, and delivery capabilities. A sales target becomes unrealistic if it exceeds supply capacity or relies entirely on overly optimistic assumptions.
Businesses can develop three revenue scenarios: conservative, baseline, and optimistic. Each scenario should be tied to specific assumptions, allowing for proactive adjustments should actual demand deviate from projections.
Hiệu quả bán hàng Tết: Bốn dấu hiệu cho thấy kế hoạch cần điều chỉnh
Khi mùa cao điểm đến gần, doanh nghiệp cần theo dõi kết quả thực tế thay vì chỉ nhìn vào doanh thu tổng.
High customer interest but few actual orders: This may indicate that the pricing, the product itself, or the sales approach is failing to meet expectations.
Revenue reliant on a few large orders: If these orders have not yet been confirmed, your targets may be at risk.
Inventory growing faster than the rate of sales: This suggests that demand forecasting or stock allocation may be inaccurate.
Revenue rising, but costs increasing even faster: Expenses related to promotions, advertising, and shipping may be eroding your profit margins.
When these signs appear, businesses must identify the root cause before deciding whether to lower prices, increase advertising, or stock up on more inventory. Each issue requires a distinct approach.
Monitoring efforts should focus on early-warning indicators—such as confirmed orders, conversion rates, order values, and the rate of sales. This provides a basis for adjusting plans while there is still time, rather than waiting until the end of the season to evaluate the results.
Tet Revenue and Profit: Higher Sales Do Not Always Mean Better Performance
A high-revenue Tet season does not necessarily equate to a successful business period. If a company has to resort to deep discounting, ramp up advertising and expedited shipping costs, or ends up with significant unsold inventory after the holiday, its actual profit may fall short of expectations.
Therefore, sales targets must be evaluated alongside profit margins, the costs incurred to secure orders, and the risks associated with inventory. A slow-moving product with a healthy profit margin might not need to be discontinued; conversely, a high-volume product that consistently requires heavy discounting may fail to generate commensurate value.
Before increasing budgets or production output, businesses should assess three key factors: sales potential, projected profit, and the resources required.
The opportunities presented during the Tet season are only truly valuable when a business can effectively convert customer demand into profitable revenue.
